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Initially, the former US president seemed to take a resolute stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "serious ramifications" in August in case Putin carried on blocking ceasefire talks, Trump eventually introduced substantial restrictions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted Putin's capacity to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Military Action

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the plan effectively compromise that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, implying giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about controlling a damaged region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the democratic governance that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in position the already divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would compel the nation to abandon the whole Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with land that its military have been failed to seize in more than a decade of warfare, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital in case he subsequently choose to renew the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a step that would enable additional fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative places no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate administration as Nazis, Trump's proposal declares: "Any radical belief system and practices must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a handback of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone believe this commitment this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. While the plan warns of a "strong unified military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details vary from vague to concerning. The plan would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from stationing forces on the nation's land, thus precluding the security presence, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. However unlike a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to react with force to Putin's attacks, something they have {not