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Entering the planet's most popular museum in broad daylight, taking eight pieces of priceless historical gems and vanishing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Specialists who study patterns in international art crime, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a series of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of precious stones or materials than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last ten years in Germany, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of lesser importance to the thieves.

“You may ask why thieves who want to take valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is more secure.”

A spate of violent retail store thefts mean that many stores have strengthened their protection in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Museums, on the other hand, look vulnerable, partly because of the in-built reason of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and also the current economic climate in many western countries.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the world have reduced spending on police and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – featuring necklaces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the tiara of Empress Eugénie containing nearly 2,000 diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves dropped by the street on their way out – has naturally been compared with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the worker Vincenzo Peruggia.

Better points of reference may be the recent theft of valuables from a German institution worth over millions, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from a UK landmark the that year, the 2017 robbery of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, said Lynda Albertson of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the cultural authorities has released images of the pieces. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see documentation confirming legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, museums were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of famous works of art and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as cultural robberies are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of taken items is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a plan to keep it in hiding, perhaps by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an partner telling the police to collect a reward.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the theft had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It's global news and in all the newspapers. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Altering stolen works by dismantling or re-cutting does lower the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary cutting techniques give gems a larger and brighter surface area, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a coverup.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping removes the proof of the crime. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the stolen goods to places with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as nearby as a city, and find someone to remove the gems,” said Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized state auditor report expected to be released next month pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” delays in updating equipment and noting that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But specialists say showing precious items in historic buildings with a constant flow of guests comes with risks that are not possible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to protect,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid security systems for structures should be designed “like a fortress”, noted a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel attackers.”

Modern buildings are equipped with state-of-the-art external CCTV cameras or in-built seismic detectors that alert about a smashed window in real time, but old museums may be reluctant to uglify their appearance. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be disabled during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the Louvre raid, which took place between morning hours in Paris, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when security rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who actually act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided thieves new methods with which to circumvent protections. In Paris, the thieves reached the museum’s first-floor window with a mobile equipment and breached a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

An author said the conversation in France about the 232-year-old building had mostly focused on visitor management in the past decade, and not as much on protection.

The museum has an in-house team of about fifty permanent emergency personnel, but their mission is mainly to safeguard the collection from blazes and water damage. “There isn't a quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the security of the Louvre all depends on political will and funding, and currently France simply has no resources.”